The Top 8 Civilization-Level Risks: How Likely Are They, and Can We Prevent Them?

By Edwin Basye

Prime Law Preface

Reality operates on cause and effect—civilizations don’t collapse by accident, but through ignored risks and misaligned incentives. Under Prime Law Capitalism, responsibility cannot be outsourced and initiatory force is rejected; sustainable solutions must come from free individuals, aligned incentives, and voluntary innovation—not centralized control. From an Immortalis perspective, survival must be engineered through resilience, decentralization, and continuous risk awareness. These threats should be viewed not with fear, but with clarity—because what we understand, we can improve, and what we can improve becomes our responsibility.

It is important for us to understand and monitor external risks to our survival as individuals and as a Civilization of the Universe. This article reviews the top eight risks which could pose a threat, even when we achieve biological immortality.

Humanity faces a handful of risks that could collapse global civilization or even threaten the long-term survival of our species. Some are natural disasters, and others are technology-amplified risks created by our modern anti-civilization itself.

Below is a concise overview of the eight scientifically credible global catastrophic risks, ranked roughly by probability × severity, along with their estimated likelihood this century, severity, extinction potential, and how preventable they are.

1. Engineered Pandemic

Probability (this century): Moderate and increasing

Severity: Potential global civilization collapse

Human extinction risk: Low but non-zero

Preventability: High

Advances in biotechnology and gene editing have dramatically lowered the barrier to modifying viruses and bacteria. A pathogen engineered for both high transmissibility and high lethality could spread globally before detection.

Fortunately, the same technologies enabling this risk also provide defenses:

• rapid vaccine platforms (mRNA, programmable antivirals)

• global pathogen surveillance

• DNA synthesis screening

• AI-assisted outbreak detection

Among existential risks, this is widely considered the most preventable if global biosecurity improves. A protection government under The Prime Law should monitor and prevent this most dangerous set of scenarios.

2. Nuclear War

Probability: Low–moderate but persistent

Severity: Severe global collapse possible

Human extinction risk: Low but plausible under extreme nuclear winter scenarios

Preventability: Moderate

More than 10,000 nuclear weapons remain deployed globally. Large-scale nuclear war could trigger nuclear winter, where smoke from burning cities blocks sunlight and collapses agriculture worldwide.

Risk reduction depends on:

• arms control agreements

• crisis-management protocols

• secure command systems

• diplomatic stability

• no initiatory force

Unlike natural disasters, this risk is entirely human-driven and politically preventable. Continuing to push for The Prime Law to be instituted in all governments will gradually reduce this risk to zero. Given the existential risk, initiatory force must be abolished to ensure this risk never is activated.

3. Advanced AI Misalignment

Probability: Highly uncertain

Severity: Potentially extreme

Human extinction risk: Unknown but debated

Preventability: Unclear but potentially high if solved early

Artificial intelligence systems are becoming increasingly powerful and autonomous. If future AI systems become vastly more capable than humans but remain misaligned with human goals, they could unintentionally disrupt critical infrastructure or economic systems.

Risk mitigation strategies under active research include:

• alignment and interpretability research

• controlled scaling of AI systems

• governance frameworks

• compute monitoring and safety testing

Because the technology is evolving rapidly, the level of risk remains deeply uncertain. Companies developing AI systems must take the responsibility to address this threat.

As individuals and consumers of AI, we can push back on any company we feel are developing AI misaligned with human survival and thriving, as well as intrusion of our individual privacy.

4. Climate System Destabilization

Probability: Moderate for severe disruption

Severity: Major global destabilization

Human extinction risk: Very low

Preventability: High

Climate change is already producing stronger heat waves, droughts, and sea-level rise. Extreme scenarios involving feedback loops—such as methane release from thawing permafrost—could intensify warming and disrupt food systems.

While unlikely to cause human extinction, climate change could create global economic stress, migration pressures, and geopolitical instability.

Mitigation tools are well understood:

• decarbonization of energy systems

• carbon removal technologies

• adaptation infrastructure

The solutions to mitigate climate disruption will come from creative business projects, which will change our oil/coal/gas energy economy to renewable energy sources. This is already underway, largely without government assistance. Tesla and other companies are competing to provide improved energy sources and distribution, as well as a transportation revolution creating self-driving electric cars. Governmental solutions should be avoided, as unnecessary restrictions to our economy could have deleterious effects and do more harm than good. The current climate stabilization schemes by government are both ineffective and corrupt. We can vote with our dollars as consumers to encourage businesses to create solutions to this potential threat.

5. Global Ecological Collapse

Probability: Moderate

Severity: Major food system disruption possible

Human extinction risk: Low

Preventability: High

Human civilization depends on complex ecological systems including:

• pollinators

• fisheries

• soil health

• biodiversity

Accelerating habitat loss and ecosystem degradation could reduce agricultural productivity and destabilize food supplies.

Solutions include:

• regenerative agriculture

• biodiversity protection

• sustainable fisheries management

• ecosystem restoration

6. Large Asteroid or Comet Impact

Probability (this century): Extremely low

Severity: Near-total civilization collapse

Human extinction risk: Possible

Preventability: Moderate and rapidly improving

A large asteroid (10 km scale) caused the extinction of the dinosaurs 66 million years ago. Fortunately, modern planetary defense programs are dramatically reducing this risk.

Key developments include:

• global near-Earth asteroid surveys

• improved sky-mapping telescopes

• the successful DART asteroid deflection mission

• upcoming dedicated asteroid detection missions

Several new survey systems are being deployed to improve detection of hazardous objects approaching from difficult solar directions near the inner solar system.

These include:

• the Vera Rubin Observatory in Chile

• the NEO Surveyor space telescope scheduled for launch later this decade

• expanded international planetary-defense coordination

  Because of these improvements, earlier proposals such as the Mercury Sentinel Mission concept we previously explored in a newsletter article—which would have placed asteroid-detection spacecraft in close solar orbit—are no longer considered necessary or cost-effective. Modern survey systems are expected to detect most civilization-scale impactors decades in advance, allowing time for deflection missions if required.

Asteroid risk therefore remains extremely severe but increasingly manageable.

7. Supervolcanic Eruption

Probability: Very low per century

Severity: Severe global agricultural disruption

Human extinction risk: Very low

Preventability: Low (eruption itself cannot be prevented)

Supervolcanoes such as Yellowstone could produce years of volcanic winter, reducing sunlight and damaging global harvests.

While humans cannot prevent such eruptions, resilience strategies include:

• strategic global grain reserves

• diversified agriculture

• protected indoor food production

These strategies can be implemented by us as individuals and by various forms of community supported agriculture. Decentralization is the key to resilience.

8. Extreme Solar Superstorm

Probability: Low per century for the most extreme storms

Severity: Large-scale electrical grid disruption

Human extinction risk: Extremely low

Preventability: High mitigation potential

Massive solar storms like the 1859 Carrington Event can induce powerful currents in long power lines, damaging large electrical transformers.

Modern mitigation strategies include:

• grid hardening

• transformer protection systems

• improved space-weather forecasting

• satellite shielding

This risk primarily threatens infrastructure rather than human survival.

The Big Picture

The most important takeaway is striking:

The three most serious risks are largely human-created.

1. Engineered pandemics

2. Nuclear war

3. Advanced AI misalignment

Natural disasters such as asteroid impacts or supervolcanoes remain serious but far less probable, and in many cases we now have growing capabilities to detect or mitigate them.

Humanity has survived ice ages, pandemics, and major volcanic eruptions. The challenge of the 21st century is managing the **powerful technologies we have created ourselves.

Reference List

General Frameworks for Global Catastrophic Risk

1. Bostrom, N. (2002).

   Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards.

   Journal of Evolution and Technology, 9.

2. Ord, T. (2020).

   The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity.

   Bloomsbury Publishing.

3. Global Challenges Foundation (2018).

   Global Catastrophic Risks Report.

Engineered Pandemic / Biological Risk

1. National Academies of Sciences (2018).

   Biodefense in the Age of Synthetic Biology.

2. World Health Organization (2022).

   Global Preparedness Monitoring Board Annual Report.

3. Gronvall, G. (2021).

   Preparing for Bioterrorism: The Role of Surveillance and Response.

These works address synthetic biology risks and pandemic preparedness.

Nuclear War and Nuclear Winter

1. Robock, A., et al. (2007).

   Climatic Consequences of Regional Nuclear Conflicts.

   Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.

2. Toon, O., Robock, A., et al. (2019).

   Rapid Expansion of Nuclear-Armed States Could Trigger Global Famine.

   Nature Food.

Artificial Intelligence Risk

1. Russell, S. (2019).

   Human Compatible: Artificial Intelligence and the Problem of Control.

2. Amodei, D., et al. (2016).

   Concrete Problems in AI Safety.

   arXiv preprint.

Climate System Risk

1. IPCC (2023).

   Sixth Assessment Report – Synthesis Report.

2. Steffen, W., et al. (2018).

   Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene.

   Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Ecological Collapse / Biosphere Risk

1. IPBES (2019).

   Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services.

2. FAO (2022).

   State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture.

Asteroid Impact and Planetary Defense

1. National Academies of Sciences (2010).

   Defending Planet Earth: Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation.

2. Cheng, A. et al. (2023).

   The DART Mission: Kinetic Impact Deflection of an Asteroid.

   Nature.

3. NASA Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO)

   Near-Earth Object Survey Program documentation.

Supervolcano Risk

1. Self, S., et al. (2014).

   Volcanic Winter and the Toba Supereruption.

   Earth and Planetary Science Letters.

2. US Geological Survey (USGS)

   Yellowstone Volcanic Observatory publications.

Solar Superstorms / Space Weather

1. National Research Council (2008).

   Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts.

2. Riley, P. (2012).

   On the Probability of Occurrence of Extreme Space Weather Events.

   Space Weather.